Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

The Chess Economy

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

We are taught since grade school that society rewards some people more than others, because their work is harder or more valuable. A doctor earns more than a dishwasher, because doctors save lives. Plus, anybody can wash dishes, but it take years of study to become a doctor. This oxymoronic notion – that economic inequality is fair – becomes so ingrained that few people really question it. In fact, we are taught that people who advocate economic equality are evil and dangerous. We call them communists and more lately socialists.

But does this really explain why doctors earn more than dishwashers? Most plastic surgeons don’t save lives or even heal their patients. And what explains why some doctors earn more than others? The average family practitioner does a lot more good for society as a whole than a Park Avenue surgeon specializing in nose jobs and tummy tucks, but earns a fraction of what the surgeon makes.

In truth, a whole array of complex economic factors, more than societal values, determine what people earn. When we say that complex economic factors determine what people earn, we are really saying that the economic system values certain types of skills more than others. I suspect the “value to society” explanation is a rationalization, an after the fact socially acceptable explanation for something that is otherwise hard to justify. Why does this matter? It matters because the economy is shaped by laws. In a democracy, the legislators theoretically enact laws that benefit their constituents, but in order for this to work properly, the constituents must understand how laws affect their lives.

To illustrate the point, let’s imagine that society valued one’s contribution according to how skilled a chess player he or she was. Most people do not play chess, or play it poorly. I would estimate that about ten percent of the population can play a game without making a complete mess of things, and about one percent play it moderately well. Exceptional players are a tiny percent of the population. In other words, if wealth were distributed according to the ability to play chess, it would pretty much resemble the way wealth is currently distributed.

Distributing wealth according to how well one plays chess, however, is a really bad idea. While I like chess and think it’s a great exercise for the mind, there is absolutely no reason why somebody’s economic circumstances should depend on the game. That’s completely arbitrary, or, as younger people are fond of saying these days, totally “random.” But it is not that much different from the exaggerated value we currently put on financial skills. Finance is a lot like a game of chess. Finance doesn’t make anything or provide any necessary service. It largely consists of rearranging pools of money and taking a cut in the process. Not that much different from moving chess pieces on a board. At the end of the day, however, in chess and in finance, you end up with pretty much what you started with.

So why are financial skills valued so much? Pretty much because, over the past 35 years or so, there has been a steady changing of laws so that what people do with money is rewarded more than what people do with their hands (as in manufacturing) or their time (as in services, except financial “services.”)

Let’s take credit cards as an example. Time was most states had laws which set a max on the amount of interest a credit card company could charge, usually in the range of 9 to 12 percent. Then the Supreme Court decided that a bank could charge whatever interest rate was legal in the state where the “lending decision” was made. This changed the law, and as a result all the major banks sought out states that removed the limit on credit card interest rates. Did you ever notice that your credit cards are all issued out of South Dakota or Delaware? That’s because those states have very loose laws, or no laws at all, concerning credit cards.

These two changes in the law – first the Supreme Court decision and then the laws passed by several states to remove limits on credit card interest rates – have resulted in a huge flow of new money from consumers to the banks. How much money? There are more than 150 million credit card holders in the United States, and the average interest rate for all credit cards is around 14 percent. That means that a significant percentage of credit card holders pay more than 14 percent. If 50 million credit card holders pay 20 percent on an average balance of $5,000, that is 250 billion in debt. The different between 20 percent and 12 percent (which was a common interest rate cap before the changes in the laws) is 8 percent, and 8 percent of 250 billion is a tidy 20 billion a year in additional interest.

Many people are extremely ignorant in the field of finance. They tend to do poorly with credit cards. Not that it’s easy to decipher the average credit card disclosure statement, in fact, they are completely unintelligible as a rule. But it’s all legal, and they are all designed to maximize profits for the financial institutions at the expense of the customer. Is this fair? Should it be legal? The argument of the credit card companies is that credit cards provide relatively easy credit for consumers enabling them to make purchases that would otherwise be out of their reach. There is always somebody talking about “personal responsibility” and “freedom” and that it’s not the government’s job to protect people against their own bad decisions. (Unless of course it’s the giant banks that are “too big to fail” that make the bad decisions, in which case it’s a matter of national urgency.)

These arguments really miss the point. The point is that we reward people who are more adept at understanding finance and we punish those who are less. Financial skills, however, have no particular merit in and of themselves, and there is no reason we need to structure our economy to create this division of winners and losers. It makes no more sense than distributing wealth according to one’s chess skills.

Michele Bachmann and Communism, Part II

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

I’m still fascinated by Michele Bachmann commandeering a communist slogan in her stump speech. The thing is, the slogan made sense when the communists used it, but it makes no sense coming out of Bachmann’s mouth. No surprise there.

The slogan, reduced to its simplest terms is “if you don’t work, starve.” Yes, I know, it’s understood that this refers to the able bodied, not the infirm, but that’s not my point. My point is that the slogan made sense for the communists, because they were actually offering the opportunity for the able bodied to work. What the communists were saying was this: “We (“society”) have the food, and if you want some, you have to do some work. There’s lots of work to be done, you just pitch in and do your share of the work, and you will be given food.”

Capitalism, which Bachmann endorses, does no such thing. A certain level of unemployment is built into capitalism. Capitalism needs unemployment, because if employment ever reached 100 percent, the cost of labor would be prohibitively high. Most economists agree that unemployment can never fall below 4 or 5 percent in a capitalist society. At that point, the cost of labor increases to the point that employers stop hiring.

So think about what it means when a capitalist says “if you don’t work, you don’t get to eat.” It’s like musical chairs, there are more people than chairs. Same thing in a capitalist society: there are more people than jobs. So when a capitalist, like Bachmann, says: “if you don’t work, you starve,” she really means “some of you are going to starve.”

Seen in this light, it’s infinitely better to live in a communist society than a capitalist one, because at least the communists will offer you the job.

Of course, all of this assumes that Michele Bachmann is really serious and also understands what she is saying. In reality, she’s just a clownish politician. Michele Bachmann understands economics about as well as my dog understands algebra. What’s scary is not the level of Bachmann’s ignorance, but that the slogan has appeal to some of the knuckle draggers who would vote for her. There are a lot of people who would let the unemployed starve, who believe that people are in a bad way because of their own laziness or some other fault for which they now deserve punishment. That is scary, and the fact that an ostensibly mainstream politician would pander to them is a sad commentary on the state that we are in.

The Stealing of America

Sunday, February 27th, 2011

They say that if you throw a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will jump right out.  But if you put the frog in a pot of cold water and slowly heat it, it will stay in the pot and get cooked to death.

The average American worker has been thoroughly cooked over the past 30 years.  Average wages, adjusted for inflation, have essentially remained stagnant, or fallen slightly, during that time.   The productivity of U.S. workers has grown steadily, however, and in theory, wages should increase as productivity increases.  But it has not happened this way:  all the gains in productivity have gone to the ownership class, not the working class.

Imagine a business owner telling a prospective worker in 1980 the following:  “this job gives you no job security, I can fire you at any moment, and if you manage to stay employed, you will get no increase in your wages for the next 30 years.”  Who’s going to sign on to that gig?  Any self respecting frog would recognize that the water is boiling.

It’s no accident that the wage stagnation of American workers has coincided with the decline and near extinction of labor unions.  A single worker, acting alone, has not got a chance.  Nobody with a say in the matter would accept the kind of dead end deal that the American workers have been given for the past 30 years, but when it’s one worker against the boss, it’s the boss’s way or the highway.  Collective bargaining is the great equalizer.  It is the means by which the workers get their fair share of the pie.

I guess Scott Walker got impatient, because he tried to throw a whole bunch of Wisconsin’s state workers into a big pot of boiling water.  Thankfully, they will have none of it.  His plan to destroy the public union’s is widely unpopular.  Not only is Walker facing a huge backlash in his own state, but this might just be the clarion call to wake up the American worker.  Workers everywhere are being told they have to sacrifice, whether it be in the form of reduced wages, lower benefits, or both.  In the meantime, they see governments giving out tax breaks to businesses and the rich, who are raking in record profits and earnings.  There is something very wrong with that picture, and people are beginning to catch on.

I can only say that it’s about time.  American workers have become pathetically conditioned to being mistreated, economically and otherwise.  A recent comment by Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe on MSNBC) serves as a good example.  As usual, Scarborough gets it wrong, and he’s apparently unaware that the unions in Wisconsin have already agreed to the economic concessions demanded by Walker.  Anyway, Scarborough is indignant that the unions are balking at paying for a greater share of their health and pension benefits.  “The unions are only being asked to do what everybody else has to do” says Scarborough (who I doubt has to contribute to his health insurance premiums).

But that’s not the point.  The point is that American workers should be outraged that they, or anybody else, is expected to give up part of their paycheck to their health coverage, or even their pensions.  We are, after all, the richest country on earth, but dozens of other developed countries treat their workers far better than we do.

The American workers are feeling a lot of pain these days.  Let’s hope they realize that it’s because they’re in  a pot of very hot water, that’s about to boil.

Required Reading

Friday, February 25th, 2011

This needs no explanation.

A Penny A Day

Saturday, February 5th, 2011

The Republicans have just introduced HR 5.  (Ok, it’s been called “bipartisan’ because some guy named David Scott, a Democrat from Georgia, is a co-sponsor.  Scott is a blue dog Democrat, i.e., a Republican who caucuses with the Democrats.  Make no mistake, this is a GOP bill.)   It styles itself as a bill “To improve patient access to health care services and provide improved medical care by reducing the excessive burden the liability system places on the health care delivery system.”  This is so called malpractice tort reform.

HR 5 is virtually identical to a bill by the exact same name (HR 5) that was introduced in Congress in 2003.  Anytime a bill is introduced in Congress, the Congressional Budget Office conducts a study and prepares a report on the economic effect that the bill will have if passed.  The CBO has not yet prepared its estimate for the 2011 bill, but it did prepare an estimate for the 2003 bill.  I’ve saved a copy of it here.

The idea behind the bill is this:  the cost of malpractice lawsuits (initiated by unprincipled and greedy trial lawyers, of course) is unreasonably and unnecessarily burdening the health care system, making it more expensive, and more inaccessible, for the rest of us.  So, you would think, malpractice reform would lower the costs of health care, and that would benefit all of us.

How much money would malpractice reform save us?  That is exactly the kind of question that the CBO report answers.  In the case of the 2003 bill, the CBO estimated that the savings to the entire health care system, over a ten year period, would total $14.9 billion dollars, or an average of $1.49 billion a year.

That’s a lot of money, right?   No, it’s not when you’re talking about the entire nationwide health care system.  The current U.S. population is about 310 million, so that savings works out to a whopping $4.81 per person, per year, or just over a penny a day.  1.3 cents per day to be exact.

It is true that a penny saved is a penny earned, so before we scoff at this savings, we should at least take a look at what we are being asked to give up in return for this 1.3 cents per day.  The signature feature of this bill is to cap damages for pain and suffering at $250,000.  This of course is ridiculously inadequate, because medical malpractice can cause catastrophic injuries.  Here’s a description of the injuries from a botched delivery:

“Doctors ultimately determined that Stephanie had sustained periventricular leukomalacia. As a result of that damage, she suffers spastic diplegia. She cannot control her legs, and her right arm is nearly useless. She is also wheelchair-bound, and she cannot perform most daily living tasks.”

So under HR 5, Stephanie, who will be wheelchair bound for her entire life, should only receive $250,000 (minus attorneys’ fees) in compensation from the doctor whose negligence is responsible for this condition?  So that we can all save 1.3 cents per day?  No thanks, I’m not interested.

Actually, the joke that the GOP seeks to play on us is even more cruel.  That 1.3 cents savings does not go into your pocket.  It’s a “trickle down” savings.  Here’s how it works:  the medical malpractice insurer saves the money, because instead of paying Stephanie several million dollars in damages for her horrendous injuries, it only has to pay $250,000.  In theory, the insurer then reduces its insurance rates, and in theory the doctors and hospitals reduce their charges because they are paying less for malpractice insurance, and in theory the health insurance companies pay less for medical care because the doctors and hospitals have reduced their rates, and in theory the medical insurance companies lower their premiums because they are paying less to the doctors and hospitals, and in theory your employer pays less for medical insurance because the health insurer has reduced its premiums, and in theory your employer gives you a raise because it is paying less for your medical insurance.

And if you believe that the 1.3 cents is ever going to trickle down to your pocket, I know of a bridge that you can buy with that savings.